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Pre-Market Stock notes (Sept. 6, 2006)

Posted on December 9, 2008 in Autodesk Architectural Studio (Default)

(ADSK) Autodesk will not file its quarterly report on time because of its stock option review.
(ALTR) Altera reaffirmed prior guidance of $334-344M; consensus estimate is $334+ million.
(AGL) Angelica reported a loss instead of positive earnings and lowered next quarter revenues.
(ATK) Alliant Techsystems filed to sell $300M in convertible notes.
(CACS) Carrier Access lowered guidance.
(DCI) Donaldson $0.43 EPS vs $0.40e.
(EGLT) Eagle Test filed to sell 5.5 million shares.
(ELX) Emulex names James McCluney as President & CEO; Paul Folino will now be chairman.
(EPCT) Epicept pain trials in Europe did not meet primary endpoints.
(EPD) Enterprise Products filed to sell 10M units.
(F) Ford is replacing Bill Ford with Alan Mulally of Boeing as President & CEO.
(FCS) Fairchild Semi now said revenues would be flat to +2% instead of prior guidance of just having flat revenues.
(FNSR) Finisar $0.03/R$106.2M vs $0.03/$107.5M(e).
(GM) GM is set to unveil new consumer initiatives today.
(HAIN) HAin Celestial $0.24 EPS vs $0.23e.
(HIW) Highwoods Properties $0.55 EPS vs $0.59e.
(HOFT) Hoker Furniture COO is retiring at the end of October.
(HPQ) Hewlett-Packard is not renominating George Keyworth to the board because he is believed to be the source of many press leaks.
(INTC) Intel did confirm it would restructure with net-net raw layoffs of 5,500 and total attrition up to 9,500.
(INTV) Intervoice revised guidance slightly higher, but lower end of range is still under consensus estimates.
(LGBT) PlanetOut lowered guidance.
(MRD) MacDermid formed a review committee to revire the $32.50 per share buyout offer from Court Square Capital, which is really a management led buyout.
(PFE) Pfizer shows that Lipitor may reduce heart attack recurrences.
(PWEI) PWEagle is a beneficairy of weather issues because of plastic pipe according to IBD.
(PZA) Provena Foods is merging with Hormel for $37.50 per share, but this is a tiny company with a micro-micro-cap.
(SNE) Sony is delaying its PS3 launch in Europe until March 2007, but will maintain its Novemebr release this year in the US.
(STXN) Stratex Networks is combining with Harris' Microwave Communications unit; HRS will hold 56% of the new company.
(SY) Sybase agreed to buy Mobile 365 for $425 million; Mobile 365 is a mobile messaging and content company.
(TARO) Tarp gets approval for its abbreviated new drug application for extended phenytoin sodium caplets, a generic to PFE's Dilantin.
(TIVO) TiVo filed to sell 8.2+ million shares of common stock for general corporate use.
(TRMA) Trico Marine entered pact to build 2 new vessels.
(WPTE) WPT Enterprises completed a strategic review and decided remaining independent would be best for the company.
(XMSR) XM Satellite recived an informal SEC inquiry regarding subscriber targets and client acquisition costs.
(ZGEN) Zymogenetics reports positive primary endpoint in Phase III RhThrombin trials.

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A More Profitable Intel Ain

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Select Analyst calls (Sept. 6, 2006)

Posted on December 9, 2008 in Autodesk Architectural Studio (Default)

AFL raised to Buy at B of A.
AKAM started as Buy at Pacific Growth.
AMP to Sell at B of A.
ARTD started as Outperform at JMP.
BLK started as Buy at AGEdwards.
BRCM started as Hold at Citigroup.
CRZ started as Outperform at Wachovia.
DCX cut to Equal Weight at Lehman.
DVN raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank.
F raised to Hold at Citigroup.
GMET started as Buy at B of A.
GSL raised to Buy at B of A.
HBI started as Outperform at CSFB.
HIG raised to Buy at B of A.
HLT reitr Buy at Citigroup.
INTC raised estimates and maintain Buy at Citigroup.
LH cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
MRVL started as Buy at Citigroup.
MTB cut to Sell at Merrill Lynch.
NLFX raised to Overweight at JPMorgan.
NFS cut to Sell at B of A.
O raised to Neutral at JPMorgan.
OVTI cut to Neutral at Merriman Curhan.
PD started as Sector Perform at RBC.
PETS cut to outperform at JMP.
QCOM raised to Buy at AGEdwards.
SUN cut to Hold at Citigroup.
SWN started as Buy at Citigroup.
TNOX cut to underweight at Prudential.
TSCM started as Outperform at JMP.
TXU started as Outperform at Wachovia.
UHS cut to Mkt Perform at Wachovia.
VLO cut to Hold at Citigroup.
WB started as Overweight at Lehman.
YRCW started as Outperform at RWBaird.

Google (GOOG) is taking on an interesting role this morning. Today it is launching "Google News Archive Search," which will allow researchers and anyone doing searches on old news to go back some 200 years if the articles are available. Google is also doing with several partners you might not guess would want to cooperate, and with their blessing.

http://news.google.com/archivesearch/

Time Warner (TWX) has its Time Magazine in the search, as does the New York Times (NYT) and the Washington Post (WPO). Factiva, a venture of Reuters (RTRSY) & Dow Jones (DJ) are in the offering as well. You can even search and purchase old articles from the Wall Street Journal and The Gaurdian. LexisNexis, a news search unit of Reed Elsevier NV ADS (ENL) in Holland, is also said to be part of the search.

The interesting model here is that the "free"portion of this will essentially be an introduction or the first part of the article and you will have the option to buy the rest of each article. So instead of devaluing online content, this could in theory at least increase the value as back-dated articles could continue to generate revenues.

The publishers (for now) are getting to keep the fees charged per article, and Google will supposedly not get advertising or traffic from the deal. Google won't even have the typical sponsored links that it normally has, although that is on a "for now" status.

The service is grouping related articles together from a given time period and the search results are supposedly based entirely on relevance, with no precedence given to fee-based content over free content. The mix of fee versus free links will also vary depending on your query. This will also generate a quasi-timeline that allows search results in a chronology of news articles. This also takes each search click directly to the content owner's site.

This is seemingly like a quasi-free LexisNexis. It could even be decribed as a Topix.net similar product, but this is for some 200 years.

I did go in and pull up a few quick searches to get an interface and to get a quick opinion of the functionality. I typed in "Jack the Ripper" and was not really pleased with the chronology, but you do get an instant alternative to a normal Google search. A search for "1929 Crash" was a bit all over the place. Even typing in "Google IPO" shows a jumbled article result page. Nonetheless, this service will help for research and Google will undoubtedly make this better as time goes on.

Unfortunately, Google is seemingly not getting much more than goodwill from paid content creators at this point. Ultimately the company will have to participate in revenues or at least in advertising, so it may end up being a net-good for the company. Until then this is just another net-neutral equivalent for the stock.

Jon C. Ogg
September 6, 2006

Cisco Systems (CSCO) does not feel any more cautious since its last earnings release. There hasn't been enough time to see the world really change, but you would think the street would be at least somewhat happy to see this after coming back from holiday.

The company today has reaffirmed its 10% to 15% annoual growth, and maintained its prior quarterly and fiscal guidance today at its analyst conference. It maintained its 15% to 20% fiscal growth this year in revenues due to the Scientific-Atlanta merger. As fas as ex-Scientific-Atlanta revenues, Cisco's revenue will rise between 10% and 15%. For Cisco's Q1 ending in October the company forecast growth of between 19% and 21% including Scientific-Atlanta, which translates to about 11% to 13% without those sales.

The company also said it will actively return funds to shareholders. They will do this by remaining active in the buyback plan, and its CFO Powell said a dividend is more of a "WHEN" rather than an "if."

As far as its market share, it plans to keep retaking what it lost. According to the webcast, the company has turned the corner in gaining market share in routing, and it will continuously boost share in the next several years.

Oddly enough, the shares are not really responding. CSCO stock is trading down almost 1%, or down $0.20, at $21.90. While CSCO has been regaining and taking share, many smaller optical and equipment companies have been hamstrung. This morning Finisar (FNSR) gave up over 10% after lackluster earnings, and recent reports out of JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and Ciena (CIEN) were less than well received. It looks like the company is not that worried that Juniper (JNPR) will get back off the floor and it has so far kept the little guys like Extreme (EXTR) and Foundry (FDRY) relegated to a "tolerable but unwanted step child" status. As long as it is able to keep H3C, the 3Com and Huawei router venture, at bay then the company is in one of teh best competitive positions it has been in for years.

Doug ran an article this morning discussing CEO Chambers selling some of his shares, so perhaps that has kept a lid on some of the shareholder optimism so far. You can probably expect many analyst calls doing "updates"and "reiterations" in the next 24 hours as a result of this analyst meeting.

In this environment, you would have thought that a "good news" would have been enough. It may be the "Sell the news" trade that is prevailing since the stock has recovered from just over$17.00 before earnings to a recent level of $22.00 before the analyst meeting. The recent chart has also been giving some overbought readings, so maybe it just needs a breather.

Jon C. Ogg
September 6, 2006

Isilon Systems Inc. has filed with the SEC for an IPO. Isilon is a Seattle-based provider of clustered storage solutions designed for data-intensive businesses and clustered computing environments, such as those found in oil and gas, media and entertainment, Internet services, manufacturing, life sciences, and government, which all produce, analyze or distribute large amounts of digital content, unstructured data and file-based information. it claims companies such as NBC Olympics, MySpace, Pratt & Whitney, Kodak EasyShare Gallery, GlobeXplorer, Technicolor, Movielink, and E! Networks that it helps to meet the demands of expanding storage environments and workflow acceleration.

The company has filed to raise $86.25 million via sales of it common stock and it plans to trade on the Nasdaq under ticker symbol "ISLN." Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and RBC Capital Markets serving as co-lead underwriters. The company has raised around $68 million in total VC funding from firms like Atlas Venture, Madrona Venture Group, Lehman Brothers, and Sequoia.

We will post financial details from the initial filing as the deal gets closer, but it has been said to be one of the ones in storage to watch according to past pre-IPO screenings of private companies on future IPO and merger radars.

www.isilon.com

Jon C. Ogg
September 6, 2006

Stocks: (T)(BLS)(VZ)(Q)

AT&T and BellSouth hit a new high every week. As Yogi Berra said, "You could look it up."

Well, hyperbole aside, all four of the major US telecoms trade at or near their highs: Qwest, Verizon, AT&T, and BellSouth. Of course, AT&T and BellSouth are merging.

But, investors looking at how the stocks trade as a multiple of sales will find a different picture. AT&T trades at 2.24 times sales. BellSouth trades at 3.64 times. AT&T must have paid a premium. But, Verizon trades at 1.22 times. And, Qwest at 1.2 times. Qwest, being the smallest of the lot does not have the balance sheet or revenue to compete with cable, WiMax, and VoIP as well as the rest. Or, at least that is the conventional wisdom about why it carries no premium.

The next issue would be debt. But, Verizon has $32 billion in debt and $75 billion in revenue. AT&T has $27 billion in debt, and, with SBC rolled in, a revenue run rate of $60 billion.

That does not leave much to differentiate the companies from a financial standpoint. But, the approach that the companies are taking to the future and potential competition are very different.

Verizon is betting the bank of fiber-to-the-home and the broadband and IPTV edge it might get over the cable guys like Comcast and Time Warner Cable. One of the issues with this bet is that a recent study by tech research giant IDC showed that only 8.5% of people intend to change providers of "bundled services" (TV, broadband, and phone). Of those surveyed 66% said they would not change and 22% weren't sure according to the study. That would indicate that if the cable guys have them, they will keep them, and Verizon has a problem.

Verizon says it will spend $20 billion building its fiber system according to the company's public statments. It also says that the service is now available to six million homes, about 20% of their customers. Of course, that does not mean that the customers are using it.

AT&T and BellSouth have not announced intentions anywhere near as agreesive for upping the ante to get faster wires into their customer's homes. And, that may be why Verizon trades at a discount.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@gmail.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Autodesk Architectural Studio

Welcome to Autodesk Architectural Studio

Pre-Market Stock notes (Sept. 6, 2006)

A More Profitable Intel Ain

Select Analyst calls (Sept. 6, 2006)

Review of Google News Archive Search

Cisco Not Rallying on Analyst Day

IPO Filing Alert: Isilon

AT&T: New High Every Week (T)

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